Eliciting a Probability: Example

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C D
C 1, 1 10, 0
D 0, 10 5, 5
(Important: The way we pay you for this question makes it so that you maximize your
chance of getting a bonus payment if you report your belief truthfully. If you want details, click here)

How You Would Be Paid

If this "probability" question were chosen for payment, here's how you would be paid.

Look at the list of choices below. Each row gives a choice between two options (A and B). The number you type in will tell us where you "switch" from choosing Option A to choosing Option B. Then one row will be chosen at random and you will be paid according to your choice in that row.

Try it out below to see how it works. (This is just an example.)

Notice that the way to get what you truly prefer on every row is to type in your true belief. If you lie about your belief, that will change your choices on some rows to be something that you like less.

When you're ready, close this pop-up window to go back and make your actual decision. (The list won't be shown there, but it will be used in the background.)


Pick: Option A   OR Option B