Eliciting a Distribution: Example

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For a randomly selected person, what is the probability that their quiz score falls in each of the following ranges?
Please enter a probability (0 to 100) for each range. Your entries should sum to 100.
(Important: The way we pay you for these questions makes it so that you maximize your
chance of getting a bonus payment if you report your beliefs truthfully. If you want details, click here)

How You Would Be Paid

If these questions were chosen for payment, here's how you would be paid.

First, one of the score ranges (bins) would be chosen at random. (In the example below, score range "" is chosen.) The probability you reported for that bin is then used to fill out the list of choices below. Each row gives a choice between two options (A and B). The number you type in will tell us where you "switch" from choosing Option A to choosing Option B. Then one row will be chosen at random and you will be paid according to your choice in that row.

Try it out below to see how it works. (This is just an example.)

Notice that the way to get what you truly prefer on every row is to type in your true belief about the chance that the score falls in the chosen bin. Since any bin could be chosen, the way to get what you truly prefer overall is to report your true probability for every bin on the main page.

When you're ready, close this pop-up window to go back and make your actual decision. (The list won't be shown there, but it will be used in the background.)

(Below is an example for one particular bin. At payment time, a different bin could be chosen.)

Pick: Option A   OR Option B